News: This past month the ETH Futures Provider has turned 1yo 🥳
Market update: While toward the end of October BTC has moved about +10%, which looked like a significant move compared to the complete dead chart from the past two months, the bigger picture looks like nothing has changed in reality and both BTC and ETH are basically still stuck in a sideways.
Not much changed this past month for the BTC Futures Provider which has now been in a long position for over two weeks. While this trade was looking good so far, it’s very hard to tell if the market has finally decided which direction to take, or if it will just hang around this price level.
Bear markets are often characterized by violent drops alternated by the occasional rally and a lot of sideways action, which we have been experiencing for a few months already.
In a way, the $20,000 level feels now similar to the $6,000 level during the 2018 bear market, and while obviously nobody knows if the subsequent price action will be similar, this indeed represents a critical decision point for the market.
As much as it can feel frustrating at times, our best edge in this situation is to keep doing exactly what we have been doing so far, meaning keep managing our risk and wait for the market to finally show its hand when the time will come.
Pretty much the same considerations can be done for the ETH Futures Provider, which has now been in a long position for about 10 days, but if this position will work or if this is just another “fake-out” is hard to tell at the moment, so once again, our best weapon is patience.
This month the ETH Futures Provider has turned one year old, and while I would have preferred it to show a healthy profit by now, I am very aware that the moment when this system was activated could have not been more unfortunate, since it has basically coincided with the beginning of the bear market, meaning that this Provider has been trading in “less favorable” conditions (during a bear market is still possible to make a profit but way harder and rarer) since day one.
The good news is that this Provider too has been able to manage its risk really well despite its more aggressive setup compared to the BTC Provider, in fact, while the underlining asset (ETH) is currently still down about -60% from its previous peak, the ETH Futures Provider is showing a small profit, which means that if you had invested in it from day one your investment would now be performing way better than a passive investment in Ethereum itself (or pretty much any other asset this year).
Just a short recap from this month to keep you guys up to date with what is going on.
In general, during a bear market such as the one we are experiencing now there are opportunities but they are rare and hard to catch, so it’s all about playing defense most of the time and seeing what the market does next.
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